Subscribe Feed (RSS)No Reason To Expect House Prices Won’t Continue To Rise Over The Long Term Say Nationwide
October 2nd, 2008 by Karelia | No Comments | Filed in House Prices, London House Prices, Property Market NewsMusings of a London Property Search Agent
“The long-run trend growth in real house prices in the UK is around 2.7% per annum and there is no reason to expect that over the longer term house prices should not continue to go up in real terms, even if we are going through a sharp correction now,” says Fionnula Earley, Chief Economist at Nationwide.
According to the Nationwide house price index, prices across the UK have fallen 12.4% versus the same time last year, with the London region (Middlesex, Enfield etc) down 9.4%, the Home Counties closest to London (Central and West Kent, South Essex, North & West Surrey, Hertfordshire etc) down 10.3% and the Outer South East, (Brighton & Hove, Oxfordshire, New Forest etc) down 10.9% versus last year.
The good news is that London boroughs haven’t fallen so far – down 5% overall with several boroughs experiencing a negligible drop. Bexley, Brent, Bromley, Havering and Merton have only seen price decreases of 1% over the last year and average prices in Hackney and Harringey have gone down by 2% since last year, according to Nationwide’s figures.
Hackney is also one of the most price-resilient boroughs according to the Land Registry figures but interestingly, Westminster, which has experienced growth according to the Land Registry, appears to be one of the worst affected boroughs according to Nationwide, who have prices down 8% since September last year.
A like for like comparison is difficult as the Land Registry figures are a month behind those of other indices and relate to the 12 month period to the end of August 08. They show the borough as having experienced house price inflation of 8.4% – a 16.4% difference versus Nationwide. Nationwide caveat their sub-regional data because prices are based on properties in the sample rather than the more robust mix-adjusted methodology. Also the average price per square foot is grossed up by the average square footage in the borough, providing an average house price, so it is a simplification. The Land Registry figures in contrast are based on actual sold prices.
Westminster is an interesting case because it includes some of the most expensive property in the world ie Mayfair and Belgravia but also areas popular with bankers and American corporate relocation personnel such as Notting Hill and St Johns Wood so it will be interesting to watch how the different indices deal with it in the future. A 16% difference of opinion however seems rather ridiculous and just goes to show that you can prove anything with “damn lies and statistics”! This London Property Search Agent seeks to wrinkle out the truth by careful analysis of reliable evidence based information!
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/review.htm
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