Cautious joyful musings of a London Property Finder

London house prices rose by 1.4% in April according to the Land Registry, our preferred house price index, which published it’s monthly statistics today.  For a Property Finder like me – that is good news as although we don’t expect sustained marked increases this year.

Leading the way was Newham, showing a 3.2% increase in sold prices since March, closely followed by Olympic borough Hackney where prices have increased on average by 2.8%.  Westminster saw the greatest monthly price fall – agreed house prices fell by 2.7% there.  The Royal borough – Kensington and Chelsea to you and me saw prices rise 0.6% month on month.

Despite the gloom and scaremongering of the mainstream press from August 2007, house prices in London didn’t start to fall until April 2008.  In Kensington and Chelsea it didn’t really start until August 2008, although the number of buyers fell sharply as soon as Northern Rock fell in September 2007.  So now we have had a full year of falling prices, London prices are down overall by 14.3% – far from the 25% – 45% predicted by many.  Hillingdon has borne up best overall over the last year, with prices falling by 11.9%, which is almost half the depreciation suffered by Tower Hamlets, where prices have fallen 21.6% in a year – the worst in London.

So what will happen now?  While we still feel that parts of the UK are over-valued, Scotland in particular, the view of many pundits is that house prices will now wobble along for a while, with some predicting a bounce early next year.  In our view stabilisation is good.  This time, London and country house prices have been sustained predominantly by the demand of foreign buyers paying in foreign currencies which have held up well against the pound.  There will always be a demand for London property, and with demand and a shortage of supply, there is always a market.

We have also seen a significant increase in enquiries from buy-to-letters and first time buyers.  Sadly, not everyone in these groups is likely to use a London Property Finder but it is at least anecdotal evidence that confidence is returning to the market and those with a decent deposit can get finance.

Technorati Tags: London House Prices, London Property Finder, London property prices, London sold prices

Tags: London House Prices, London Property Finder, London property prices, London sold prices

Musings of a London Buyer’s Agent

The CEBR – the Centre for Economic and  Business Research published some research just before Easter with news that according to their forecasts, house prices have only got another 8-10% left to fall – and that’s their worst case scenario.  They also think, like us, that the property market will pick up early in 2010. 

They’ve also suggested that it could be alot sooner than that, depending on how fast mortgage lending recovers.  Pre-credit crunch, around 100,000 new home loans were approved each month.  Mortgage approvals, like property transactions has dipped by over two-thirds in the last year or so but there has been a little spike recently, fueled in our view by overseas investment, seasoned investors spotting bargains, first-time buyers finally able to take the plunge and the rest of the home-owning public just wanting to get on with our lives.

If new home loans continue to increase in what the CEBR describe as ‘a relatively modest rise’ to say 60 or 70,000 a month, ie to double, by the end of the summer, the market will bottom out in Q3 this year, according to the CEBR.  It does seem a bit much though, to suggest that mortgage approvals will double in the next few months,  view shared by the CEBR, hence the initial projections we stated at the beginning of this piece.

However there seems to have been a change of mood of late in the press.  It seems that we are all fed up of gloom and doom, as are the journalists who have been writing about it for the last 18 months.  So with the general populace gloom-weary and a more upbeat tone in the press, perhaps a doubling in new mortgage lending isn’t too much to hope for.  If it is coupled with a doubling of top end property purchases, London Buyer’s Agents like me will indeed be celebrating.

Technorati Tags: House Price Predictions, House Prices, London Buyer's Agents, London property prices

Tags: House Price Predictions, House Prices, London Buyer's Agents, London property prices

Musings of a London Property Finder

Average house prices have fallen 10% over the year to the end of October 2008, according to The Land Registry, the government official House Price Index.

London and Brighton property have not fared as badly, down 8.6% and 7.2% respectively although the picture is very mixed for the South East region as a whole.

Waltham Forest was the worst hit London borough, registering an annual house price fall of 9.2%.  Wandsworth and Lambeth have also been badly hit, with average price falls of -7.3% and -8.2% respectively. 

Westminster and Harrow are the only boroughs to have held onto gains made since September last year, registering annual house price growth of 0.1% and 0.7% respectively.  Southwark and Barking and Dagenham registered the lowest falls with reductions of 0.5% and 1.9% with Bexley, Brent, Enfield, Hackney and Hillingdon closely behind with marginal price falls of circa 2% on last year.

Kensington and Chelsea which has generally held up quite well this year dropped 1.7% in October and registered an annual overall price fall of 3.6%. 

During the first quarter of this year it looked like prices were more likely to hold in London than in the South East.  Todays data shows that many of the Home Counties have out-performed some London boroughs.   

Windsor and Maidenhead where there are a plethora of very large executive homes and often little reason to sell in a downturn, has performed the best of the South East regions, registering price falls of 2.7% over the last year – nothing to write home about.  Price falls of under 5% are reported in Buckinghamshire, Thurrock and Surrey and average house prices in Kent are 5% less on the nose.

All other areas in the South East are registering house price falls of above 5% with the most significant house price deflation in Northamptonshire where average house prices are worth 10% less than a year ago.

The number of property transactions has also continued to fall across the board apart from sales of less than £100,000 and yes, there are some in London – there were 58 property sales in August for under £100,000.

Clients who have chosen us as their Property Search Agents will be aware that negotiated final prices depend very much on the situation of the vendor and the realism of the initial asking price, but that price cuts of 20-30%+ and more have become more common.  As professional Property Finders, we try to dissuade Clients from buying properties which we believe are over-valued but although these figures may sound alarming, they are only of concern to people at risk of going into negative equity.  Most people who have bought wisely and had their homes for five years or more should not be affected.

Homeowners wanting to move who have a reasonable amount of equity in their homes should still be able to do so – the key to a successful purchase in this market is:

1.  Ensure that the discount negotiated off the current market valuation of a new home exceeds any negotiation on the home sold
2. Research the new area thoroughly so that you have a good idea of whether it is going to fare well in years to come and take future price falls into consideration when you offer
3. If you  don’t feel confident about the above – speak to a London Property Finder who does – our number is 020 7923 7564

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Tags: Brighton house prices, Brighton Property prices, Hampshire House Prices, house price crash, house price falls, House Prices, Kensington and Chelsea house prices, Kent house prices, London house price crash, London House Prices, London Property Finder, London property prices, Westminster property prices, Windsor & Maidenhead house prices