Reproduced with the kind permission of the Land Registry

Musings of the best Upmarket London Property Finders

The Land Registry  house price statistics for August reflect the rosier ambience those of us involved in the property market have been experiencing for a number of months now.  Most significantly, the number of house sales at the top end, particularly those over £2 million are up year on year at 54 a month in London.  House prices in Westminster, which includes Mayfair, Marylebone, Bayswater and parts of Notting Hill are now down just 3.4% versus last year and we would expect them to end the year close to prices achieved in May 2008, when house prices in Westminster were at their peak.  The average home in Westminster is now worth £574,714 compared to £622,950 in May 2008.

Technorati Tags: Latest London House Price Data, London House Prices, london house prices rise, London property, London Property Finder, London property finders, London property prices, London Property Prices Stable

Tags: Latest London House Price Data, London House Prices, london house prices rise, London property, London Property Finder, London property finders, London property prices, London Property Prices Stable

Musings of a London Property Finder

A month ago Anthony Bolton, frequently named ‘Britain’s leading fund manager’ gave an interview to Bloomberg predicting an end to the bear market and said that we are now at the beginning of a long running bull market. 

His reasoning is essentially that from his analysis of previous bear markets, in terms of length and severity, he believes we’ve passed the low point.  He regards sentiment as being at a low not seen since the 1970s, despite some recent improvements and that this has led to investors holding historically high cash positions.  Money market funds in the US are now half the size of the stock market, compared to just 20-25% in previous lows.  Further, on many metrics, stocks are on historically low valuations and he rejects the view that it’s different this time, and that we need to throw away what we’ve learned over the past 35 years. Specifically, he does not expect the S&P 500’s low of 666 to be revisited, and anticipates this rally lasting for several years. 

Bolton has been bullish about pretty much all sectors, including property and questionned the wisdom of holding only traditional ‘recession stocks’ such as government bonds.

This morning it seems rival fund manager Invesco Perpetual’s Neil Woodford has dismissed this view, warning that the downturn has ‘a hell of a long way to go’.  His reasoning is that economic recovery won’t occur until both the UK and global economies have rebalanced, which means reducing leverage and rebuilding the banking system to a point where it is prepared to lend to businesses again.

‘My view is the problems that led to this recession - problems of excessive leverage in the consumer economy, excessive leverage in the banking system - have not been corrected at all,’ Woodford said.

‘There’s been no discernible, no significant increase, in consumer saving. There’s been no rebuilding of balance sheets effectively in the personal sector.  If anything, leverage has increased in recent months and arguably because of course there’s been a fall in asset values and a fall in house prices. So there’s been no paying down of debt. The banking system has to some extent reduced its leverage but I believe it has a hell of a lot further to go.’

Certainly both views are based on truth and this London Property Finder firm certainly won’t be pitting their wits against these two city heavy weights, except to say that there still seems to be a great deal of cash sloshing about, certainly in property, both from within the UK and in-bound as foreign investors pile in.  Who can blame them?  They smell bargains when the Brits stop buying and sterling falls.  As we all know, many fortunes are made out of a recession and the canny are keen to invest where they see value. 

It is true that Joe Bloggs is probably more highly geared than he was 18 months ago, but then it’s unlikely he is going to get us out of the recession, except for the fact that he keeps spending and helping businesses to grow and banks to keep lending.  Also, we work closely with several banks and anecdotally they seem to be lending where the business plan stacks up and they think they are going to get their money back.  And that’s the point.  The mood seems to have changed, people with cash can see opportunities and they know they need to invest to keep their money working.

In my capacity as a London Property Finder, not a week goes by without me spotting a truly amazing bargain and if I had any spare money, I would certainly be shopping and it wouldn’t be shoes!

Technorati Tags: Bottom of the market?, London house price crash, London House Prices, London Housing Market, London Property Finder, London property prices

Tags: Bottom of the market?, London house price crash, London House Prices, London Housing Market, London Property Finder, London property prices

Musings of a London Property Search Agent

Of the property searches we have undertaken so far this year, all have involved an off-market property search, because supply is so low in all sectors of the market.  In Prime Central London, the situation is particularly acute, with many properties sitting around for ages and the gems being snapped up, in some cases before vendors have selected an estate agent and signed up.  And you know what?  That suits us down to the ground! 

We can really display our talents when there is little stock.  We advertise, phone all our contacts, speak to all the home owners we know with suitable property and inevitably an estate agent will be able to bring a reluctant vendor to market and we will find a few vendors keen to talk since we have serious buyers and before we know it, it’s all systems go.

Interestingly, advertising hasn’t borne fruit this year.  It always impresses our Clients, but we’ve not had a good response rate this year at all when advertising for property.

I digress.   Anyway, regular readers will know that we have seen gazumping coming back to the market and that as Property Search Agents who know what we are doing and what vendors will accept - we have also been very critical of predominantly overseas buyers who confuse property deflation with the collapse of sterling against some currencies, and pay far more than they would if they were buying through us.    It seems Knight Frank, who act for vendors are also seeing a return to gazumping and are yet another estate agent reporting rising prices achieved in the capital in May and a bumper crop of sales agreed.  Knight Frank have house prices in prime Central London up 1.6% in May, following a rise of 0.4% in April and we would expect other house price indices to reflect similar gains.

Another piece of anecdotal good news is the increase of first time buyers and buy-to-letters  to the market.. Enquiries are up tenfold on a year ago and with the bargains on offer we are really not surprised - for those who can get finance that is anyone with a deposit of 10% or more and a good credit record, it’s a great time to buy. 

So are the green shoots starting to flower?  It’s a bit close to call but with top accountants and business people predicting positive GDP from Q4 this year and those who lose their jobs often finding alternative work within a few weeks, fingers crossed normality is not far round the corner.

This London Property Search Agent has her fingers crossed!

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Tags: green shoots, house prices rising, London House Prices, London property prices, London Property Search Agent, property