Musings of a group of London Property Buyers Agents

I know, I know, we’ve been banging on about house prices for over a week now, but you regular readers know how it is: some weeks EVERYONE releases their house price data, and for property anoraks like us (and some of you) frankly, we know you love it really!

The National Housing Federation has just published a piece of research by Oxford Economists stating that the average house price will fall by 12.2% this year and a further 4.6% next year before stabilising in 2011 with a 1.1% rise.  Apparently we are then into a boom cycle where prices will rise by 7.5% in 2012, 8.4% in 2013 and 6.8% in 2014. 

So that means wannabe first-time buyers who haven’t quite saved enough deposit can rejoyce, supposedly, and carry on drinking their deposit down the pub.

Unfortunately, we don’t know the thinking behind all these stats, apart from the fact that the researchers appear to have based their findings on lower income households and not taken into account the influx of foreign buyers who have contacted all of us London property pros over the last 12 months.

However, the gist of the report is that for unhappy new homeowners in the North West and the East Midlands, there is more bad news: prices in 2014 are forecast to be lower than 2007 so those who bought at the top of the market will have lost out unless they bought an absolute gem.

No such issues for London and the South East.  Property prices in the South East are forecast to rise by 10% from their peak in 2007 and prices in London are forecast to rise by 8%.  As always these are averages and take into account lots of areas in which our Clients would never want to live.  We are pretty confident you are safe, unless we told you so when we organised your house purchase.  We may have quibbled about your asking price but that is what you paid us for and none of our clients are in negative equity, or have lost money on their property purchases to date. 

We may live to regret it, but I think most of our Clients will see over 10% growth by 2014, wherever they are.

Technorati Tags: house price crash, house price inflation, House Prices, London House Prices, UK house prices

Tags: house price crash, house price inflation, House Prices, London House Prices, UK house prices

Musings of a London Property Finder

The RICS (Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors) have supported our anecdotal musings, stating that price expectations for London over the next six months are positive, given the lack of new instructions and burgeoning lists of wannabe-buyers.  In the RICS monthly house price survey published today, the Institute have declared that they expect house prices in London to rise for the first time in two years.

As we reported last month, the RICS statistics show that London house prices have been largely rising this year.  Their report also signals house price increases for the South West and that prices will remain flat in the South East overall.

The surveyors have made clear that price increases are due to a lack of supply, partly, as a result of the introduction of HIPs, as we have been saying for months.  They suggest that any significant increase in houses for sale is likely to lead to house price deflation once again, as they are currently reproting in the North and in the Midlands.  In fact it seems that there is a direct corelation between the areas where house prices show most growth and the areas where most property for sale.  Supply vs demand.  Simple really.

As for us, we’re sticking with our theory that the back end of this year will be a good time to buy.  Only time will tell whether we or the RICS are right, but if you want the right house at the right price – then this London Property Finder is probably one of the best house price anoraks around!

Technorati Tags: house price crash, London house price crash, London House Prices, London Property Finder, london property search

Tags: house price crash, London house price crash, London House Prices, London Property Finder, london property search

Musings of a London Buyer’s Agent

House prices will stop falling before the end of the year according to Simon Rubinsohn, Chief Economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), who addressed the Building Societies Annual Conference yesterday.  He said that predictions of a 45% drop peak to trough were overly-pessimistic.  “I think the overall decline will be more like 25%-30%,” he said.

He warned that the return of the 95% mortgage is likely to have several strings attached and would often be tied to other insurance products, which will mean if borrowers can afford to pay the higher fees they entail, some may find it difficult to qualify.

Explaining that the jump in buyer enquiries had not been matched by the number of properties on sale he added: “This is partly because there are fewer distressed sales [people being forced to sell] €“ partly because home information packs may have put off speculative sellers and partly because people are still reluctant to sell at a price below what they think their property is worth.” 

“Buyer enquiries have risen particularly in London. Our members are picking up on a lot of potential interest from overseas buyers.”

Regular readers will know that we have routine rants about overseas buyers assuming they are getting a great deal because the low cost of sterling coupled with deflationary property prices means overseas buyers now pay significantly less than they would have done 2 years ago in many cases, but they are still frequently paying too much.  However as we predicted, against the tide of popular agreement, London and the Home Counties is standing up much better than predicted and when the bounce comes, it will be felt most strongly here. 

In some parts of prime Central London it’s hard to know there is a recession on.  Overseas buyers without knowledgeable London Buyer’s Agents to advise them are the people to thank for that.     I’ve just had a call from a contact who has been struggling to sell his Hans Crescent freehold for the last 18 months.  He has just accepted an offer £2 million over what we were discussing on behalf of a Client last year, before our Client changed his mind.  And in case you are wondering, our fees would have been alot less than £2 million!

Technorati Tags: effect of the recession on London house prices, house price crash, House Prices, London Buyer's Agents, RICS

Tags: effect of the recession on London house prices, house price crash, House Prices, London Buyer's Agents, RICS