Musings of a group of London Property Buyers Agents
I know, I know, we’ve been banging on about house prices for over a week now, but you regular readers know how it is: some weeks EVERYONE releases their house price data, and for property anoraks like us (and some of you) frankly, we know you love it really!
The National Housing Federation has just published a piece of research by Oxford Economists stating that the average house price will fall by 12.2% this year and a further 4.6% next year before stabilising in 2011 with a 1.1% rise. Apparently we are then into a boom cycle where prices will rise by 7.5% in 2012, 8.4% in 2013 and 6.8% in 2014.
So that means wannabe first-time buyers who haven’t quite saved enough deposit can rejoyce, supposedly, and carry on drinking their deposit down the pub.
Unfortunately, we don’t know the thinking behind all these stats, apart from the fact that the researchers appear to have based their findings on lower income households and not taken into account the influx of foreign buyers who have contacted all of us London property pros over the last 12 months.
However, the gist of the report is that for unhappy new homeowners in the North West and the East Midlands, there is more bad news: prices in 2014 are forecast to be lower than 2007 so those who bought at the top of the market will have lost out unless they bought an absolute gem.
No such issues for London and the South East. Property prices in the South East are forecast to rise by 10% from their peak in 2007 and prices in London are forecast to rise by 8%. As always these are averages and take into account lots of areas in which our Clients would never want to live. We are pretty confident you are safe, unless we told you so when we organised your house purchase. We may have quibbled about your asking price but that is what you paid us for and none of our clients are in negative equity, or have lost money on their property purchases to date.
We may live to regret it, but I think most of our Clients will see over 10% growth by 2014, wherever they are.