House prices stabilising according to RICS Chief Economist
May 14th, 2009 by Karelia | No Comments | Filed in House Prices, London Buyer's Agents, London House Prices, london property newsMusings of a London Buyer’s Agent
House prices will stop falling before the end of the year according to Simon Rubinsohn, Chief Economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), who addressed the Building Societies Annual Conference yesterday. He said that predictions of a 45% drop peak to trough were overly-pessimistic. “I think the overall decline will be more like 25%-30%,” he said.
He warned that the return of the 95% mortgage is likely to have several strings attached and would often be tied to other insurance products, which will mean if borrowers can afford to pay the higher fees they entail, some may find it difficult to qualify.
Explaining that the jump in buyer enquiries had not been matched by the number of properties on sale he added: “This is partly because there are fewer distressed sales [people being forced to sell] €“ partly because home information packs may have put off speculative sellers and partly because people are still reluctant to sell at a price below what they think their property is worth.”
“Buyer enquiries have risen particularly in London. Our members are picking up on a lot of potential interest from overseas buyers.”
Regular readers will know that we have routine rants about overseas buyers assuming they are getting a great deal because the low cost of sterling coupled with deflationary property prices means overseas buyers now pay significantly less than they would have done 2 years ago in many cases, but they are still frequently paying too much. However as we predicted, against the tide of popular agreement, London and the Home Counties is standing up much better than predicted and when the bounce comes, it will be felt most strongly here.
In some parts of prime Central London it’s hard to know there is a recession on. Overseas buyers without knowledgeable London Buyer’s Agents to advise them are the people to thank for that. I’ve just had a call from a contact who has been struggling to sell his Hans Crescent freehold for the last 18 months. He has just accepted an offer £2 million over what we were discussing on behalf of a Client last year, before our Client changed his mind. And in case you are wondering, our fees would have been alot less than £2 million!
Tags: effect of the recession on London house prices, house price crash, House Prices, London Buyer's Agents, RICS
