Musings of a group of London Property Buyers Agents

I know, I know, we’ve been banging on about house prices for over a week now, but you regular readers know how it is: some weeks EVERYONE releases their house price data, and for property anoraks like us (and some of you) frankly, we know you love it really!

The National Housing Federation has just published a piece of research by Oxford Economists stating that the average house price will fall by 12.2% this year and a further 4.6% next year before stabilising in 2011 with a 1.1% rise.  Apparently we are then into a boom cycle where prices will rise by 7.5% in 2012, 8.4% in 2013 and 6.8% in 2014. 

So that means wannabe first-time buyers who haven’t quite saved enough deposit can rejoyce, supposedly, and carry on drinking their deposit down the pub.

Unfortunately, we don’t know the thinking behind all these stats, apart from the fact that the researchers appear to have based their findings on lower income households and not taken into account the influx of foreign buyers who have contacted all of us London property pros over the last 12 months.

However, the gist of the report is that for unhappy new homeowners in the North West and the East Midlands, there is more bad news: prices in 2014 are forecast to be lower than 2007 so those who bought at the top of the market will have lost out unless they bought an absolute gem.

No such issues for London and the South East.  Property prices in the South East are forecast to rise by 10% from their peak in 2007 and prices in London are forecast to rise by 8%.  As always these are averages and take into account lots of areas in which our Clients would never want to live.  We are pretty confident you are safe, unless we told you so when we organised your house purchase.  We may have quibbled about your asking price but that is what you paid us for and none of our clients are in negative equity, or have lost money on their property purchases to date. 

We may live to regret it, but I think most of our Clients will see over 10% growth by 2014, wherever they are.

Technorati Tags: house price crash, house price inflation, House Prices, London House Prices, UK house prices

Tags: house price crash, house price inflation, House Prices, London House Prices, UK house prices

Musings from Manse and Garret London Property Buyers Agents

Source: Nationwide

Nationwide Building Society have released their latest house price data for  July, with news that they have registered the third consecutive rise in house prices and that house prices could end the year higher than where they started.  Given the sharp falls in prices last Autumn, year on year, house prices are down only 6%, down from -9% in June. 

Rightmove have confirmed what those of us who work in property every day were aware of: there is considerable number of buyers chasing limited stock and the number of buyers hasn’t dropped since beginning of the summer, as it usually does.

Looking at Nationwide’s figures for non-seasonally adjusted house prices, it is certainly true that  house prices have risen at a phenomenal rate this year.  The ‘average house’ has increased in value by 8% since February of this year, adding just under £10,000 to a house worth £150,000 at the beginning of this year.  However no-one expects the Autumn market to be as busy, although I have just done a viewing with an agent who is predicting a boom, but then there are many in our industry who will do so for reasons of self-interest, whether consciously or not.

The interesting thing from the Nationwide research is that as per the graph above, house prices are now on a par with the long term real house price trend, which should give comfort to buyers hoping to stay in their new homes for a number of years.

As for us, in our capacity as London Property Buyers Agents, I think we will see a relatively bumpy property market over the next six months at least.  A busy Spring Summer next year perhaps and stable Autunm and then potentially a more difficult 2011, depending on what the Tories do.  I do think the worst of the price falls will be over by the end of the year but I also sense a jittery market, so expect minor peaks and troughs.  Time will tell.

Technorati Tags: House Prices, London Property Buyers Agents, Rising house prices

Tags: House Prices, London Property Buyers Agents, Rising house prices

Musings of a London Property Buyers Agent

It seems that we have talked of nothing but house prices this week, so we thought we’d turn our attention to the desirability of further house price falls and soaring prices to help readers make up their own minds.

Firstly, if the market crashes again, here are the good things:

• Non-homeowners may be able to afford their own homes
• There will be more repossessions for those in a position to buy
• House prices in some areas will fall lower than the initial build cost, which is good for buyers

And the negatives:

• Many people will go into negative equity and some will lose their homes
• Bankruptcies will increase
• To some extent, the gap will widen between the rich and the poor

And the good things about a soaring market place:

• Some people will make an awful lot of money
• Downsizers can release cash to fund a new chapter in their lives, such as school fees, retirement etc 
• Existing homeowners are spared the worry of being in negative equity

And the bad:

• Wannabe-homeowners need to borrow more to live in smaller homes
• Fewer people will be able to buy a home of their own
• The chasm between rich and poor could widen as more people choose to rent as opposed to buy, lining the pockets of landlords

So the moral of the story in the view of this Property Buyers Agents is a steady, stable property market is the best thing for us all.  People with skill will still make money in property and some amateurs will struggle.  Confidence will return to the market and people will be able to move when they want to, without losing money - if they bought well in the first place of course!

Technorati Tags: House Prices, London Property Buyers Agent, London Property Buyers Agents, property slump

Tags: House Prices, London Property Buyers Agent, London Property Buyers Agents, property slump